Optimism vs. Pessimism with reality in the middle.
I am not saying everyone who tries to be as optimistic as possible is like the classic ostrich with its head in the sand ignoring the inferno I used AI to depict as the destruction of democracy in my illustration. I am just saying that there are degrees of optimism from wishful thinking which can be close to the primitive psychological defense mechanism denial…
… to something in the middle. This is where reality reigns. Then finally we go to debilitating doomsaying pessimism. This could become clinical depression.
I don’t think I am one of those doom-and-gloomers who seems to revel in reminding people how hopeless everything is these days. The former managing editor of “Stars and Stripes,” D. Earl Stephens, calls them “the ones who bring umbrellas to fight off a sunny day.”
Stephen’s begins his Raw America Substack (my bold below) as follows:
Before you get on with your weekend, I want to grab you real quick, and publicly address the chalkboard-scratchers out there, who are making a lot of noise, and our way forward in this country a whole helluva lot harder than it needs to be.
I am talking about the doom-and-gloomers, who seem to revel in reminding everybody how hopeless everything is these days. You know the type. They’re the ones who bring umbrellas to fight off a sunny day.
For the past three weeks, we have been hearing every other hour or so how Trump is going to interfere with our elections in November. The notion that the America-attacking blowhard would try something like this comes as absolutely no surprise to patriots who have been paying attention to what is happening in America.
He seems to imply that people like me are like the doom and gloomers he refers to.
It gets worse and more insulting:
I’ve noticed there is a smugness to these entitled people who make it their jobs to bring everybody else down to their hopeless level.
They are bad news in blood-stained print, and making some difficult times in this country even harder.
I can no longer have people like this in my life.
I try to be ruthlessly honest with myself. I do not see myself as being smug and entitled.
I found this all to be personally insulting. The implication is that someone who expresses pessimism about the current political situation is “the type” as described. (I said so in the comments to his article. This led to at least a couple of replies.)
I think that this sort of person would probably be diagnosed as clinically depressed.
Such a person can be called a doomsayer. The dictionary uses the example “a person who predicts disaster, especially in politics or economics.”
Would someone who warned about Hitler in 1935 both in Germany and other countries be considered a doomsayer?
Before the Great Depression would someone who predicted a Stock Market Crash be a doomsayer?
True, there have been some setbacks to Trump’s authoritarian ambitions. Our side has had both minor and major victories.
However, it is not nearly time to pop the champagne corks. We haven’t had a free and fair midterm election yet. Trump hasn’t caused a true Constitutional crisis by defying a Supreme Court order. We see how the Trump machinations are in full-gear trying to make sure this doesn’t happen. Even if the Democrats take control of one (as is likely) or of both houses of Congress, which is far less likely, we don’t know if or when Trump will declare martial law.
Consider: “Could November 4th be Trump’s Wednesday Waterloo?
Don’t think that his paramilitary police state war-planners aren’t trying to make sure this doesn’t happen.
Someone commenting in Stephen’s piece wrote in reply to a comment I made:
“There is a place for the “Cassandras” who warn us of impending catastrophe-and SOME will hear their message and begin to organize to take action. But most of the rest of those on our side need to know what we can actually “do” a LOT more than we need to hear about MAGA’s latest outrage.”
I had to make sure I knew who Cassandra was. Here’s what I found on Wiki: In Greek mythology she was cursed to utter true prophecies, but never be believed. Wiki tells us that “her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate a person whose accurate predictions, generally of impending disaster, are not believed.”
I know I wasn’t cursed to be an infallible prophet. I’m not delusional. Some prognosticators have good records, but none are infallible. Those who make predections with a good track record for having been correct have evaluated the best information available and generally they consider historical precedent. This is what search assist says:
Political scientists and research groups like PollyVote have shown high accuracy in predicting election outcomes by using fundamental factors such as economic conditions and historical voting patterns. In contrast, traditional poll-based methods have often underestimated support for certain candidates, leading to less reliable predictions.
I try to do my best when I think about likely political outcomes when I write on subjects related to what might happen with the MAGA movement.
I caution about falling into a state of despair and immobilization. I believe we have to fight to the best of our ability and find psychologically healthy ways to recharge our depleted batteries when they are run down.
Ideally we ought to have the psychological equivalent of a trickle charger like I have for my hybrid car.
We should keep our psychological batteries as fully charged as possible lest they run down to the point we need to call the Triple A crisis line for a jump start.
I storngly caution against being afraid to look at dire possibilities and clinging to every win our side has whether in an election, or court, or in the polls, or a disastrous MAGA performance (Pam Bondi’s or Greg Bovino’s for example) without realizing that our enemy is looking at these wins and making plans to counterattack. Our enemy has vast resources and won’t hestitate to violate the Constitution, defy court rulings, and ignore precedent, to win at all cost.
I caution against becoming a “cockeyed optimist.” This is someone who maintains an unwavering, often unrealistic belief in positive outcomes. This may lead to ignoring evidence that would challenge their beliefs. This is sometimes called confirmation bias. It goes beyond being a person who chooses to see the bright side of situations into the realm of being blind to what is really happening. It is the personality type illustrated by ostrich with it’s head in the sand cartoons.
The commenter wrote “...those who take delight in delivering bad news because it gives them a certain amount of agency and control - instead of being the one that something is happening “to”, they are at least inflicting the knowledge on someone else..”
This was my answer:
Someone who actually takes delight in delivering bad news would might be diagnosed as sadistic. I would not want someone like this in my life.
Doing this might give some people a sense of agency and control, of being an actor rather than a person acted upon, but there are certainly healthy ways to be an actor. Being a victimizer is not one of them.
I like to believe I am imparting knowledge, mostly from my area of expertise, which is in psychology. I write my opinions. These are separate from, but related at times, to having been a therapist for 40 years. Opinions are opinions, and those who read my Substacks on a regular basis obviously think they are worth considering. If they disagree with me I welcome comments and am always willing to engage in respectful debate:
Addendum: I won’t go on adding to this with a plethora of examples. However, indulge me with just this one from HUFFPOST:
ICE Is Already Impacting Elections — Even If They Don’t Show Up At The Polls
There are those who think Minneapolis was a victory and are giddy in their glory. Consider the meaning of a Pyrrhic victory (Wikipedia): It is a victory gained at such a cost to the victor that it is tantamount to defeat.
Evening update:
Consider this after ICE was supposed to getting it’s legal act together in Minneapolis: