Will Trump's delusional "Obama will do it" claim turn the Iran War into a win for him backfire big time? He's playing craps with his power and betting American lives.

Read “Trump’s tweets saying Obama will start war with Iran to distract from domestic failures come back to haunt him” and/or just click the image of Trump’s tweets about Obama starting a war with Iran to help him win reelection (below) to enlarge them.

This demonstrates that Trump knows all about using war for political benefit. Of course when it came to Barack Obama, he didn’t need to start a war with Iran (or any other country) to be re-elected.

Trump took what I think is the biggest gamble of his presidency, if not of his adult life, by starting a war with Iran.

ChatGPT defines a successful opening salvo which results in a long dragged out war with no clear winner this way:

A successful opening salvo that results in a long, dragged-out war with no clear winner is an initial military strike that achieves short-term tactical or operational objectives but fails to decisively defeat the opponent, instead triggering sustained resistance, escalation, and strategic stalemate.

In other words:

• “Successful” tactically → It destroys targets, surprises the enemy, or achieves immediate goals.

• Strategically incomplete → It does not eliminate the opponent’s capacity or will to fight.

• Escalatory effect → It hardens resolve, mobilizes broader forces, or internationalizes the conflict.

• Outcome → Protracted war, attrition, and no decisive victor.

In military theory, this often reflects a misalignment between tactical success and strategic end state — winning the first battle but losing control of the war’s trajectory.

Trump threw the dice. They may look like bombs and missiles which hit their targets, but long term we don’t know if they will win the war. Figuratively, they are still rolling across the craps table of Iran.

The only way he can win is that they come up with a seven or eleven. The game of craps doesn’t require skill, it is a game of chance, and it isn’t easy to win. This is from Wikipedia.

The pro-democracy revolution Trump hopes will start must end quickly with a victory for Iranians who, ironically, want to live in a regime without a ruthless dictator. If the war drags on with Americans dying Trump has to hope is military leaders know what they are doing and not gambling.

Unfortunately for Trump, who is known to cheat at golf, he can’t use loaded dice to win on the Iran craps table. There is always a part of war that, like in the game of craps, depends on luck.

Trump is counting on his advisors being correct when they tell him what he wants to hear. He doesn’t have the self-awareness to know that, to stay in his favor, they have to tell him what he wants to hear. He’s surrounded himself with a cadre of advisors who won’t say “no” to him.

We don’t know whether they told him how many Americans would be likely to die: 10, 100, 1,000.

Consider: Trump Was Told Americans Would ‘Very’ Likely Die in His Illegal Iran War. The president keeps saying his war will be “easily” won. Now that it’s started, few around Trump think that will be the case.

With a prolonged war, American casualties will mount as Iranian forces shoot down our jets and attack our bases in the region. As this happens eventually his support in MAGA will diminish. If we have to send ground troops into the country, there will be even more deaths. At some point, if this happens, his support will dwindle to next to nothing. It will sink in with his supporters that the dice he is throwing are Americans soldiers.

And then, there’s this:

Addendum: Centom posted this tweet:

CENTCOM Update

TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.

Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being returned to duty. Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing.

The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified.

Here’s a sample of the replies. They were about 50/50 suporting the millitary and being highly critical of the war. (Click images to enlarge)

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Iran War: